Whether you look at the past and trends, the scientific information collected over many season’s or buy a farmer’s almanac the end result of determining the potential for each year’s catch comes down to many factors, one of which is luck!

Thanks to Gary and Todd and everyone else who has shared information on the catches to date and catch potential for 2016…

According to the watershed watch organization and their preliminary 2016 Salmon Outlook document returns of salmon for 2016 could be variable due to the changes in the marine environment caused by a number of changes and conditions mostly perpetuated by the Pacific warm blob, now dicipated, but whose effects are likely to continue to affect the salmon as a species for at least another year. Changes to the marine food web are still being felt even though the water temperatures are beginning to normalize such as the Zooplankton composition, density and distribution. The food web directly affects the health of the salmon and all the upstream animals that feed on the salmon.

Another thing to consider for subsequent fishing years will the the available spawning fish and the age and condition of the available salmon, their ability to move upstream to spawn and changes to their migration routes because of the water changes that will likely continue to affect them for another year before the environment has the chance to recover and return to normal. Even though the El Nino has ended we could still get another drought year that would be further detrimental to the spawning salmon stocks.

It is not all bad though! Predictions for the 2016 catch are good overall with abundant returns of Chinook expected in the Bella Bella & Hakai Pass area and good Coho runs are expected, but the Chum and Pink Salmon stocks may not be as plentiful in the area for 2016.

Over the last few years the total catch for salmon has been increasing with a huge increase in the Spring salmon with the 2015 catch being 70% + over the previous year and a significant increase in the Coho as well.

2016 will be the natural 4 year low in the cycle and it remains to be seen how the environmental factors that affected the runs last season end up affecting the upcoming 2016 salmon runs.

Please follow the link above for greater details from the 26 page preliminary 2016 Salmon outlook report.

Tight lines! <")))))><